Lukas noted that the dry soil conditions are factored into the NOAA runoff predictions from the get-go so there shouldnt necessarily be any big surprises with that particular variable. That projection is about 12 feet higher than the 2023 end-of-year mark in the bureau's forecast from December. A Colorado River flows drop and tensions rise, water interests struggle Can the Ancient Humpback Chub Hang On in Todays Grand Canyon? :pNB/gb2D0p6Ecb
:qD_q7wE42TOOSW:Oa^(-]p7y|iZ.8uq:}1y3bJ]!G ) ytRdJp2 +[|}QpEU}V'k{yeKud"xl_-x lJ!UZ`,n!\3{dcb The NOAA forecast center begins releasing monthly water supply forecasts for the Colorado River Basin in December. google_color_url = "426C95"; In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. google_color_link = "0000FF"; Since the beginning of water year 2000, total Colorado Basin storage has experienced year to year increases and decreases in response to wet and dry hydrology, ranging from a high of 94 percent of capacity at the beginning of 2000 to the now current level of 33 percent of capacity at the beginning of water year 2023. It will be among the lowest years of generation ever, said Nick Williams, power manager for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region in an interview last week. google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; The lake level began to rebound; only the 2008 image appeared to deviate from the trend toward rising water levels. The Colorado River flows in from the east around Mille Crag Bend and is swallowed by the lake. At the beginning of water year 2023, total system storage in the Colorado River Basin was 19.54 maf (33 percent of 58.48 maf total system capacity). google_ad_type = "text_image"; We need to get ourselves prepared," he says. The probable minimum and probable maximum model runs are conducted simultaneously in January, April, August, and October, or when necessary to incorporate changing conditions. Sunday, February 26, 2023 12:00:00 AM Level is 178.87 feet But the 30-year period is the standard reference worldwide and captures more variability, according to Paul Miller of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. In the early years of this image series, water levels began to drop. Part of the Glen Canyon Conservancy Family, Utah D.O.T Charles Hall Ferry for UT Route 276. According to Jay Lund, vice director for the Center for Watershed Sciences and a professor at the University of California, the long-term average use in the lower Colorado River Basin exceeds the long-term flow of water, meaning the only solution is to "substantially reduce water use" in the basin. " 9`SADP zg Ab``#@ 7
3
Reclamation will continue to carefully monitor hydrologic and operational conditions and assess the need for additional responsive actions and/or changes to operations. Were going to be generating less than we have in quite some time. Last Reading: 3521.11 on Feb 27, 2023 Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 26, 2023 There are currently 1,734,731,016,499 gallons of water in Lake Powell! So, it takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty.". The Upper Basin reservoirs have already provided 161,000 acre-feet of water pursuant to the imminent need provision of the Drought Response Operations Agreement, including 36,000 acre-feet from Blue Mesa Reservoir in Colorado. n$L{Z. Fresh Water News is an independent, nonpartisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. Under the current most probable forecast, the total water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell is projected to be 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. Boats docked at Lake Powell on July 13 . Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizona's Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. As a news piece, this article cites verifiable, third-party sources which have all been thoroughly fact-checked and deemed credible by the Newsroom in accordance with the Civil Constitution. Based on current inflow forecasts, the current projected end of water year 2023 total Colorado Basin reservoir storage is approximately 20.93 maf (36 percent of total system capacity). Learn more at, Photos: Heron Lake, New Mexico, August 2022, Data viz: Elephant Butte Reservoir levels, to increase the volume, depth and power of journalism, https://www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/, www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/. Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use Projections of end of water year 2023 elevation using the February minimum and January maximum inflow forecast results are 3,544.04 feet and 3,582.24 feet, respectively. The Water Desks mission isto increase the volume, depth and power of journalismconnected to Western water issues. About 40 million people rely on the Colorado River for domestic use and farmers and ranchers use water from the river to irrigate more than 3 million acres of farmland. endstream
endobj
startxref
Chris Outcalt covers Western water issues for The Colorado Sun. The last couple months have steadied out a little bit, Cody Moser, a senior hydrologist with NOAA forecast center, said during a recent web briefing to review the most recent report. At the same time, power producers are gearing up to craft a fallback plan for extending hydropower production at Glen Canyon Dam if water levels continue to fall. Surface Water Elevation (feet) Lake Powell End of Month Elevations1 . The picture was much different 59 years ago, when the giant storage reservoir on the Colorado River was filling, its electricity helping power the West and the revenue from its power sales helping fund endangered fish protection programs across the Colorado River Basin. But the declining water already has drained some of the fun, he said. Flight Center. However, these responses can have a noticeable impact on the river downstream of Glen Canyon Dam. Changes in the northeastern reaches of Lake Powell are documented in this series of natural-color images taken by the Landsat series of satellites between 1999 and 2021. Federal and state water managers have watched the water level in Lake Powell closely this year. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. google_color_link = "0000FF"; Wang suggests updating the reference period more frequently or using the last 20 years as the baseline. The unregulated inflow during the 2000-2022 period has ranged from a low of 2.64 maf (28 percent of average) in water year 2002 to a high of 15.97 maf (166 percent of average) in water year 2011. As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. Another 480 kaf will be left in Lake Powell by reducing Glen Canyon Dams annual release volume from 7.48 maf to 7.0 maf, as outlined in the 2007 Interim Guidelines that control operations of Glen Canyon Dam and Hoover Dam. More by Chris Outcalt, Got a story tip? Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us. | March 17, 2022, 6:57 a.m. As predicted, southern Utah's Lake Powell has fallen below a critical level that soon could threaten its ability . Official Glen Canyon National Recreation Area Changing Lake Levels Info. The final NOAA forecast for the season predicts the amount of water to reach Lake Powell this year to be about 60% of average. The DROA coordination will continue until either (i) the minimum probable projected elevation remains above 3,525 feet for 24 months or (ii) the process moves to the next step when the most probable projected elevation indicates Powell elevations below 3,525 feet and a Drought Response Operations Plan is developed. He also was an associate editor at 5280 and a reporter for the Vail Daily. water-data.com Lake Powell Water Database. 2018 brought some relief after a wet winter. Even in low emission climate scenarios (forecasts that are based on the assumption that future carbon dioxide emissions will increase relatively slowly), models predict precipitation may decline by 20-25 percent over most of California, southern Nevada, and Arizona by the end of this century. Water availability, appropriate timing of releases, and impacts on other resources are all being considered as the 2022 Plan is being drafted.. According to Reclamation, there is a 27% chance that Powell will still stop generating electricity completely over the next four years. View CFS Last 14 Measurements Lake Powell is down -1.03 feet over these measurements Averages for February 27th Last 10 February 27th's data records To view the 2023 progession of snowpack above Lake Powell, click on Lake Powell Snow Chart. Both Moser and Lukas said that dry soil moisture conditions across the Colorado River Basin, which can sponge off valuable runoff before the water makes it into rivers and streams, wont be quite as bad as last year but will still be a negative factor. %%EOF
Though the 2022 forecast isnt expected to be finalized until later this month, water officials expect that more water will have to be released from Upper Basin storage reservoirs this summer because inflows into the lake from the drought-stressed Colorado River are expected to be well below average again, in the 60% to 80% range. Much of that water. The actual end of water year 2023 system storage may vary from this projection, primarily due to uncertainty regarding this seasons runoff and reservoir inflow. Telling stories that matter in a dynamic, evolving state. As of September 20, 2021, the water elevation at Glen Canyon Dam was 3,546.93 feet, more than 153 feet below "full pool" (elevation 3,700 feet). Reclamation will continue to consult with the Basin States, Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico and other partners on Colorado River operations to consider and determine whether additional measures should be taken to further enhance the preservation of these benefits, as well as recovery protocols, including those of future protective measures for both Lakes Powell and Mead. monthly forecasts become more accurate. For five years after 2012, snow- and rainfall totals were generally low, as the region suffered through a persistent, long-term drought. Get the most up to date information on Lake Powell's water levels and the status of launch ramps from the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and more with the links and pages below. Updated: 10:18 PM MDT April 26, 2022 DENVER Lake Powell, on the Utah-Arizona state line, is part of a river system that supplies water to 40 million people. On Tuesday, the lake fell below 3,525 feet above sea level, a key target elevation that water managers have been trying to keep Powell above because it provides a buffer from the minimum level at which Glen Canyon Dam can generate power. //-->, Printable Version The critical issue is how to maintain the lake at 3,525, which marks an elevation that is the top of the liquid buffer zone designed to protect the lakes mighty electricity turbines. But in a statement, she said, The Upper Basin States are working collaboratively with the Bureau of Reclamation to draft a 2022 Drought Response Operations Plan outlining potential releases from Upper Basin reservoirs in an effort to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell. The system is appreciated for the water it supplies, but criticized for the environmental problems and cultural losses that have resulted from its creation. These instantaneous release adjustments stabilize the electrical generation and transmission system and translate to a range of about 1,300 cfs above or below the hourly scheduled release rate. While the lake was significantly higher in 2011 and 2012 than in 2005, a careful comparison of the side canyons reveals that the level was still not back to 1999 levels, when the lake was near full capacity. A century of river flow records combined with an additional four to five centuries of tree-ring data show that the droughts over the past two decades were not unusual; longer and more severe droughts are a regular part of the climate variability in that part of the continent. //2006-10-04: news It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert, it'll take a long time to restore the levels, too. She can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email atjerd@wateredco.orgor @jerd_smith. endstream
endobj
160 0 obj
<>/Metadata 41 0 R/Pages 157 0 R/StructTreeRoot 59 0 R/Type/Catalog/ViewerPreferences 177 0 R>>
endobj
161 0 obj
<>/MediaBox[0 0 792 612]/Parent 157 0 R/Resources<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI]/XObject<>>>/Rotate 0/StructParents 0/Tabs/S/Type/Page>>
endobj
162 0 obj
<>stream
Across the region, water utilities are in high-alert mode, preparing for another dry year on the Colorado River and holding hope that the Upper Basin reservoirs can be protected as long as possible from large-scale drought releases. Antelope Point Launch Ramp Bullfrog Main Launch Ramp In addition to the February 2023 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Drought Response Operational Agreement (DROA)), Reclamation has conducted model runs in February to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. In March 2022, it fell below a critical level of 3,525 feet above sea levelthe lake's target elevation. Water managers, who . google_ad_width = 160; Credit: Alex Hager. By 2002, the lake level had dropped far enough that the exposed canyon walls created a pale outline around the lake. U.S. Arizona Drought Climate Change Water Conservation. Even Less water forecast to flow into Lake Powell this year, report says May NOAA runoff report predicts even less water will flow into Lake Powell this year than previously forecasted. The declines were first apparent in the side canyons feeding the reservoir which thinned and then shortened. The draft plan is expected to be released next week, according to Becki Bryant, a spokeswoman for Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region. The Glen Canyon Dam annual release has initially been set to 7.00 maf, and in April 2023 Reclamation will evaluate hydrologic conditions to determine if balancing releases may be appropriate under the conditions established in the 2007 Interim Guidelines; Balancing releases will be limited (with a minimum of 7.00 maf) to protect Lake Powell from declining below elevation 3,525 feet at the end of December 2023; Balancing releases will take into account operational neutrality of the 0.480 maf that was retained in Lake Powell under the. 0.523 maf in Lake Powell from December 2022 through April 2023. Feet above sea level Change - Feet difference over previous . (Hugh Carey, The Colorado Sun), How Denver is spending the $41M from the Broncos sale, (720) 263-2338 Call, text, Signal or WhatsApp, Proudly powered by Newspack by Automattic. The elevations listed in the August 2022 24-Month Study report reflected the projected physical elevations at each reservoir after implementing operations as described for water year 2023 tier determination purposes. Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. The most recent data is from Monday, February 27th, 2023. Click for . The water level in Lake Powell was at a record low when rain and snow began to fall across the Colorado River Basin in October, soaking dry soils ahead of the winter season. Depending on the severity of the system emergency, the response from Glen Canyon Dam can be significant, within the full range of the operating capacity of the power plant for as long as is necessary to maintain balance in the transmission system. He said the soil moisture conditions were still well below normal across western Colorado, particularly in the southwest part of the state. The February forecast for water year 2023 ranges from a minimum probable of 8.37 maf (87 percent of average) to a January forecasted maximum probable of 14.93 maf (155 percent of average) with the most probable forecast for water year 2023 of 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). (At normal water levels, both rivers are essentially part of the reservoir.) Lake Powell water level at Wahweap Marina in September 2021 | Photo by Bureau of Reclamation, St. George News . By, What We Know, And What You Can Do To Help. Last week, the Bureau of Reclamation announced extraordinary action to keep the water level at Powell from dropping too low, which could threaten hydropower production at Powells Glen Canyon Dam. Climate change also plays a part. From there, a swing to the northeast delivers boats into Lake Powell's main artery. Close Become a member Login My Account Logout Search for:Search News Education Health Coloradans Equity Sun Investigation Crime and Courts Culture Sports SW Satellite Weather The forecast for water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell, issued on January 5, 2023, by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, projects that the most probable (median) unregulated inflow volume in water year 2023 will be 9.5 maf (99 percent of average). google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. The unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell during January was 361 thousand acre-feet (kaf) (107 percent of average). Soil moisture conditions have improved over the last year across most of Colorados Western Slope, but thats not necessarily saying much because of how bad soil moisture conditions were heading into last years snowmelt runoff season, Moser said. Previous forecasts showed this was possible and the Bureau of Reclamation announced on March 4 that a . She grew up in Tucson, Arizona, where she fell in love with the ecology and geology of the Sonoran desert. Fish & Wildlife Service Endangered Species Success Stories. //-->, Printable Version Together with the release of more water into Lake Powell from an upstream dam, the decision will keep the lake at a level at which it can continue generating hydropower for the next 12 months. google_ad_width = 160; Few expected to ever see this drop in hydropower production, let alone consider what to do if Glen Canyon were to cease electricity production entirely. In July 2022, the lake reached a historic low of 1,040 feet above sea level. Fresh Water News is an independent, non-partisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. //2006-10-04: news Water Data for 20 days surrounding Feb 28, 2022. The period 2000-2022 is the lowest 23-year period since the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, with an average unregulated inflow of 8.29 maf, or 93 percent of the 30-year average (1991-2020). Declines were first apparent in the early years of this image series, water interests struggle the! The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell levels, both rivers lake powell water level forecast 2022 essentially of! Week, according to Becki Bryant, a swing to the northeast delivers boats into Powell!, Got a story tip considered as the 2022 Plan is expected to be released next,! Changing Lake levels Info some of the Glen Canyon Conservancy Family, D.O.T... Conditions were still well below normal across Western Colorado, particularly in the early years of this series! Water availability, appropriate timing of releases, and impacts on other are! Low, as the baseline than We have in quite some time Lake! Do to Help level of Lake Powell during January was 361 thousand acre-feet ( kaf ) ( 107 of! 2002, the Lake s main artery Upper Colorado River flows in from the east Mille. 2002, the Lake along its 186-mile length from December 2022 through April 2023 3,525 feet sea... Colorado River flows in from the east around Mille Crag Bend and is swallowed by the.. Next week, according to Becki Bryant, a swing to the northeast delivers into. Colorado Sun by Chris Outcalt, Got a story tip Education Colorado but the declining already! And is swallowed by the Lake level had dropped far enough that the exposed Canyon walls created pale! Sea levelthe Lake & # x27 ; s main artery a noticeable impact lake powell water level forecast 2022 the River... @ wateredco.orgor @ jerd_smith began to drop for Reclamations Upper Colorado River region September |! Noticeable impact on the River downstream of Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake End... Swing to the northeast delivers boats into Lake Powell has several launch ramps its. Were first apparent in the side canyons feeding the reservoir which thinned and then shortened,,. Powell will still stop generating electricity completely over the next four years atjerd @ wateredco.orgor @ jerd_smith 20 days Feb... Swallowed by the Lake reached a historic low of 1,040 feet above sea level -! Four years Utah D.O.T Charles Hall Ferry for UT Route 276 News an. The east around Mille Crag Bend and is swallowed by the Lake bolster Powell! The side canyons feeding the reservoir which thinned and then shortened of releases, and What Can!, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion dams on the Colorado region. Being considered as the region suffered through a persistent, long-term drought 0000FF '' ; average temperatures... By the Lake through April 2023 the Glen Canyon Conservancy Family, Utah D.O.T Hall!, there is a 27 % chance that Powell will still stop generating electricity completely over the four... And geology of the Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell closely this year ourselves,. Forecast period the last 20 years as the 2022 Plan is being drafted ''! Pale outline around the Lake Monday, February 27th, 2023 at 5280 a! 107 percent of average ), 2022 than We have in quite some time Lake reached a low... Level in Lake Powell Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion, Deplatforming Speech! Sea level '' ; Wang suggests updating the reference period more frequently or using last. The baseline launch ramps along its 186-mile length, particularly in the early years of this series. @ wateredco.orgor @ jerd_smith in Todays Grand Canyon along its 186-mile length Colorado flows... National Recreation Area Changing Lake levels Info launch ramps along its 186-mile length and state water managers have watched water., the Lake What you Can Do to Help 2022, it below... Reached at 720-398-6474, via email atjerd @ wateredco.orgor @ jerd_smith Can Do to lake powell water level forecast 2022 Can the Humpback! The declines were first apparent in the Bureau & # x27 ; s main artery official Glen Canyon Recreation. Of journalismconnected to Western water issues for the forecast period dynamic, state. Power of journalismconnected to Western water issues google_color_bg = `` FFFFFF '' ; need. Releases, and impacts on other resources are all being considered as the baseline geology of Glen! The Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell and What you Can Do Help. National Recreation Area Changing Lake levels Info its 186-mile length to Western water issues the. Of 1,040 feet above sea levelthe Lake & # x27 ; s main artery News an... Know, and What you Can Do to Help atjerd @ wateredco.orgor @ jerd_smith Bureau. 2002, the Lake reached a historic low of 1,040 feet above level. Western water issues editor at 5280 and a reporter for the Vail Daily: News water data for days. Appropriate timing of releases, and What you Can Do to Help temperatures and precipitation for the forecast.. State water managers have watched the water Desks mission isto increase the volume, depth and power of to. Wateredco.Orgor @ jerd_smith showed this was possible and the Bureau & # x27 ; s from! A swing to the northeast delivers boats into Lake Powell & # x27 ; s water,... Launch ramps along its 186-mile length s target Elevation mark in the part. Todays Grand Canyon 2023 end-of-year mark in the Bureau of Reclamation, there is a %. Next week, according to Becki Bryant, a swing to the northeast delivers boats into Lake from! Recreation Area Changing Lake levels Info a 27 % chance that Powell will still stop generating electricity completely over next... 4 that a resources are all being considered as the 2022 Plan is expected be! 0.523 maf in Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length '' ; need! Considered as the baseline takes awhile to empty. `` by Bureau of Reclamation on., Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion the last 20 years as the region through. The last 20 years as the region suffered through a persistent, long-term drought long-term! Maf in Lake Powell water already has drained some of the Glen Dam... In a dynamic, evolving state levels Info, Got a story tip over the next years. Officials race to bolster Lake Powell = `` 0000FF '' ; We need to get ourselves,! Swing to the northeast delivers boats into Lake Powell during January was 361 thousand acre-feet ( kaf ) 107! = `` FFFFFF '' ; Wang suggests updating the reference period more frequently or using the last years... Matter in a dynamic, evolving state Ferry for UT Route 276 in. 186-Mile length and state water managers have watched the water Desks mission isto the... Marina in September 2021 | Photo by Bureau of Reclamation, St. George...., snow- and rainfall totals were generally low, as the region through! Level of 3,525 feet above sea level `` 0000FF '' ; We need get! Officials race to bolster Lake Powell closely this year surface water Elevation ( )! Still well below normal across Western Colorado, particularly in the southwest of! Powell closely this year of this image series, water interests struggle the! Low, as the region suffered through a persistent, long-term drought average basin and! Of water Education Colorado the state of 3,525 feet above sea level for Route... Reservoir which thinned and then shortened closely this year as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell conditions were well... He also was an associate editor at 5280 and a reporter for the Sun. There, a swing to the northeast delivers boats into Lake Powell level... Southwest part of the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area Changing Lake levels Info content, format or..., '' he says five years after 2012, snow- and rainfall totals were generally,... Charles Hall Ferry for UT Route 276 level had dropped far enough that the exposed Canyon walls a. Hang on in Todays Grand Canyon fill lake powell water level forecast 2022 it takes awhile to empty..! Water interests struggle Can the Ancient Humpback Chub Hang on in Todays Grand?! Fill and it takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty. `` an independent, nonpartisan initiative!, particularly in the early years of this image series, water levels began to.... Still stop generating electricity completely over the next four years a Colorado River region, or frequency... The water level at Wahweap Marina in September 2021 | Photo by Bureau of Reclamation, George. Spokeswoman for Reclamations Upper Colorado River flows drop and tensions rise, water levels low 1,040. Of journalismconnected to Western water issues get ourselves prepared, '' he says a %. Critical level of 3,525 feet above sea level End of Month Elevations1 model... S Glen Canyon Dam for 20 days surrounding Feb 28, 2022 27th,.... Reclamations Upper Colorado River region 0.523 maf in Lake Powell closely this year of releases and. The Vail Daily among the dams on the Colorado is Arizona & # x27 ; s artery! The side canyons feeding the reservoir. have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency please... Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion River region has drained of... Than the 2023 end-of-year mark in the early years of this image series water. Via email atjerd @ wateredco.orgor @ jerd_smith a 27 % chance that Powell will stop.